A new, robust analysis of the predictive power of the VantageScore 4.0 credit score in mortgage originations demonstrates substantially superior performance over the incumbent monopoly Classic FICO model. As part of a long tradition of transparency with credit risk model performance, VantageScore is the only credit scoring company to publish the VantageScore 4.0 credit scores on the individual mortgage loan data set for the 10-year 2013-2023 historical period provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This data set contains 10 years’ worth of VantageScore credit scores and includes 45 million VantageScore credit scores. FICO has not released any FICO 10T data to the market to allow for public comparisons. For this reason, all comparisons were made between VantageScore 4.0 and monopoly Classic FICO only.

The side-by-side analysis of a robust 10-year historical mortgage data set, using no manipulated inference, assumptions, or triangulations, provides conclusive evidence that VantageScore 4.0 is a more predictive credit scoring model for assessing risk in conforming mortgages, compared to the incumbent Classic FICO score. Numerous independent assessments agree with our findings.

— Dr. Andrada Pacheco, Chief Data Scientist at VantageScore

Key findings of the study include:

• 11.2% More Predictive Lift: According to the analysis, VantageScore 4.0 captures 11.2% more mortgage defaults within the highest risk scored population in the historical 10-year data set, compared to the Classic FICO Score.
• 3.5% Performance Improvement: VantageScore 4.0 outperforms the Classic FICO score by a relative 3.5% in predicting 90 or more Days Past Due (DPD) delinquencies within two years.
• Independent and Third-Party Analyses Agree, VantageScore 4.0 Is Better: Independently, studies conducted on the same historical mortgage data set by the nation’s largest banks corroborate findings that VantageScore 4.0 is an overall better indicator for capturing loan delinquencies¹. Additional mortgage entities that already accept VantageScore 4.0 for mortgage include the Veterans Administration, the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, and the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas.
• 33 Million More Get a VantageScore 4.0, 13 Million Receive a VantageScore Above 620 and Five Million are Mortgage Qualified: Additionally, by including rental, utilities, and telecom data from the credit files in the VantageScore 4.0 calculations, as well as by using explainable machine learning techniques on borrowers with limited and sparse credit files, VantageScore 4.0 unlocks an estimated five million creditworthy borrowers for the mortgage market.

For more information on VantageScore 4.0 implementation, please visit VantageScore’s Mortgage landing page.