- VantageScore 4.0 Predicts 11.2% More Mortgage Defaults Compared to the Incumbent Monopoly Classic FICO Score
- VantageScore 4.0 Delivers 3.5% Predictive Lift Over Incumbent Monopoly FICO Classic on a 10-Year Historical Mortgage Data Set
- 5 Million More Underserved Mortgage Borrowers Likely to Qualify for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Backed Mortgages Using VantageScore 4.0
SAN FRANCISCO — July 17, 2025 - A new, robust analysis of the predictive power of the VantageScore 4.0 credit score in mortgage originations demonstrates substantially superior performance over the incumbent monopoly Classic FICO model. As part of a long tradition of transparency with credit risk model performance, VantageScore is the only credit scoring company to publish the VantageScore 4.0 credit scores on the individual mortgage loan data set for the 10-year 2013-2023 historical period provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This data set contains 10 years’ worth of VantageScore credit scores and includes 45 million VantageScore 4.0 credit scores. FICO has not released any FICO 10T data to the market to allow for public comparisons. For this reason, all comparisons were made between VantageScore 4.0 and monopoly Classic FICO only.
The side-by-side analysis of a robust 10-year historical mortgage data set, using no manipulated inference, assumptions, or triangulations, provides conclusive evidence that VantageScore 4.0 is a more predictive credit scoring model for assessing risk in conforming mortgages, compared to the incumbent Classic FICO score. Numerous independent assessments agree with our findings.
— Dr. Andrada Pacheco, Chief Data Scientist at VantageScore

Key findings of the study include:
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11.2% More Predictive Lift: According to the analysis, VantageScore 4.0 captures 11.2% more mortgage defaults within the highest risk scored population in the historical 10-year data set, compared to the Classic FICO Score.
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3.5% Performance Improvement: VantageScore 4.0 outperforms the Classic FICO score by a relative 3.5% in predicting 90 or more Days Past Due (DPD) delinquencies within two years.
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Independent and Third-Party Analyses Agree, VantageScore 4.0 Is Better: Independently, studies conducted on the same historical mortgage data set by the nation’s largest banks corroborate findings that VantageScore 4.0 is an overall better indicator for capturing loan delinquencies1. Additional mortgage entities that already accept VantageScore 4.0 for mortgage include the Veterans Administration, the Federal Home Loans Bank of San Francisco, the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, and the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas.
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33 Million More Get a VantageScore 4.0, 13 Million Receive a VantageScore Above 620 and Five Million are Mortgage Qualified: Additionally, by including rental, utilities, and telecom data from the credit files in the VantageScore 4.0 calculations, as well as by using explainable machine learning techniques on borrowers with limited and sparse credit files, VantageScore 4.0 unlocks an estimated five million creditworthy borrowers for the mortgage market.
For more information on VantageScore 4.0 implementation, please visit VantageScore’s Mortgage landing page.
About VantageScore®
VantageScore is the fastest-growing credit scoring company in the U.S., and is known for the industry’s most innovative, predictive and inclusive credit score models. In 2024, usage of VantageScore increased by 55% to hit 42 billion credit scores. More than 3,700 institutions, including the top 10 U.S. banks, use VantageScore credit scores or digital tools to provide consumer credit products and generate greater insights into consumer behavior. The VantageScore 4.0 credit scoring model scores 33 million more people than traditional models. With the FHFA mandating the use of VantageScore 4.0 for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guaranteed mortgages, the company is also ushering in a new era for mortgage lending and helping to close the homeownership gap.
VantageScore is an independently managed joint venture company and owners include the three Nationwide Consumer Reporting Agencies (NCRAs) - Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion.
Footnotes
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“The Score” Podcast, September 11, 2024. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPgilo13Gz8 ↩