Independent analysis repeatedly finds that VantageScore 4.0 is more predictive than FICO Classic. VantageScore’s model is 11% more predictive than FICO Classic for mortgages and is up to 15% more predictive in macro-economic stress periods, such as the pandemic.
Don’t believe us? This fact-check is supported by studies from several leading financial services firms.
From Bloomberg Intelligence (July 22, 2025):
Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) supply may get a boost from wider use of VantageScore 4.0 (VS4) credit scoring, a method that could expand credit availability to more borrowers, and reduce origination costs for those taking out loans… Studies suggest that at least 10% more borrowers could qualify under VS4 vs. classic FICO (and) Vantage Score 4.0 would have had a 15% higher success rate at predicting defaulters, which may have reduced pandemic defaults.
From J.P. Morgan, Mortgage-Backed Securities (August 2, 2025):
VantageScore 4 is able to capture a larger share of ever 60+ DQ loans at the same credit score cut-off… We see that VantageScore is able to capture 2-4% more ever delinquent loans than Classic FICO.
From Kroll Bond Rating Agency (July 11, 2024):
Utilizing VS4 Current for calculating loan representative scores, KBRA compared the classic FICO score data for the loans in the aggregated GSE data set with the VS4 Current scores… The result illustrates VantageScore’s feature of producing scores for thinner file borrowers.
From Autonomous (August 7, 2025):
Many of the top lenders are set up to use VantageScore 4.0 - it is just a much better score, particularly for consumers with thin-file, consumers who come from underprivileged background and first-time home buyers.
From Bank of America, Global Research (July 19, 2024)
In conclusion, data shows that VantageScore 4.0 with the average/average tri-merge method is overall a better indicator for capturing both prepayment (faster cashout) and credit event (increased delinquency). Meanwhile, the higher shifting distribution captured by VS4 should theoretically help with borrower affordability, e.g. qualifying more borrowers and lowering rates, with the later conditional on the LLPAs staying roughly unchanged.
For more resources regarding VantageScore 4.0’s leading mortgage standards, see below:
Silvio Tavares, President and CEO of VantageScore on Bloomberg TV
The SCORE Podcast “Bank of America: VantageScore 4.0 is ‘Better’ for Mortgage”
References:
- Bloomberg Intelligence, “VantageScore May Widen Mortgage Pool, But Preserve Loan Quality”, July 22, 2025.
- John Sim, Ani Gelashvili, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, “JP Morgan Chase North America Securitized Products Research”, August 2, 2024.
- Jack Kahan, Global Head of ABS & RMBS KBRA, July 9, 2025.
- Kelsey Zhu, Ghilad Davide Holzer, Autonomous “FICO: Credit Score Hunger Games, Key takeaways from our Lenders’ Choice channel checks”, August 7, 2025.
- Pratik Gupta, Head of CLO & RMBS Research at Bank of America Securities, “CRT: No Crowd Strike on demand yet; A vantage on VantageScores in Agency Loans”, July 19, 2024.
