Is this the end of rising credit scores?
In June 2014 the Average US Consumer had a VantageScore 4.0 Credit Score of 668; in June 2021 it was 695. Since the end of the great recession there has been a continuous rise in average consumer credit scores with more consumers moving into the Prime and Super-Prime Risk tiers, and the COVID-19 pandemic not appearing to slow the rise.
But … in July 2021 the national average score moved downwards from 695 to 694, a small change that took the average score back to its April 2021 value.
The month-to-month difference in average score is less than half a point. 11 states saw a similar, small decrease in average scores, including the most populous state California. Scores increased in only two states, whereas the majority of states did not see a change. The proportion of consumers in Super Prime or Prime credit tiers has been flat since April 2021 indicating a generally stable lending environment.
The last 18 months have seen unprecedented levels of government intervention, borrower accommodations, as well as changes in credit reporting. While the economic recovery has been faster than initially expected and the consumer credit performance has held up strong, there still remains a level of uncertainty as the pandemic continues to evolve and accommodation near an end. It is too early to see whether the scores will resume their decade long positive trajectory or there will be some headwinds ahead. VantageScore will continue to closely monitor changes in credit scores, as well as how the overall levels of risk in the system evolve.
VantageScore Solutions publishes U.S. Consumer Average VantageScore Credit Score Trend, VantageScore Risk Tier Trends and Average VantageScore Credit Score by State on our website on a monthly basis. Follow the link to view the current statistics: Consumer Credit Score Insights.