STAMFORD, Conn, July 5, 2016 – According to an annual validations study based on a compilation of over ten years of historical data, the VantageScore® credit scoring models have consistently outperformed all of the CRC in-house models in what matters most to lenders – predictiveness, universe expansion, and score consistency – across all three major lending categories (mortgages, auto and bankcard).
The 2016 validations study examined how the three VantageScore models (VantageScore 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0) have performed during the time period of 2013-2015, as well as over the past ten years. VantageScore Solutions, since it was founded a decade ago, has validated all its credit scoring models annually and publicly posted the validation results to promote greater transparency in the credit scoring industry and to assist financial institutions with model governance. 1 By contrast, conventional credit scoring models are often only validated at inception.
“We put the validations process in place to help pinpoint opportunity as risk profiles shift and introduce transparency into what was an otherwise opaque industry. This means opportunity to build the best credit scoring model in the industry, opportunity to score more people and expand the universe of qualified borrowers, and opportunity to be proactive with the economy instead of reactive to get the most predictive and consistent score possible,” said Sarah Davies, senior vice president for analytics, product management and research at VantageScore Solutions. “The proof is in the study: All the VantageScore models surpass competitor models in both normalized and volatile risk periods, thus demonstrating unparalleled, long term stability.”
THE RESULTS
This past decade, the economy has experienced both a recession and recovery. VantageScore Solutions validated all its models on consumer originations during the most volatile risk period (2007-2009), including VantageScore 1.0, which was developed pre-recession (2003-5); VantageScore 2.0, which was developed mid-recession (2007-10); and VantageScore 3.0, which was developed post-recession (2009-12).
- RECESSION-PROOF: It is not surprising that VantageScore 2.0 performed optimally because it was developed on the same recession timeframe. VantageScore 3.0 performance, however, was also strong. VantageScore 3.0 was within a half Gini point2 of VantageScore 2.0 for the bankcard, installment, and auto industries. For mortgages, where score performance was most challenged during the recession, VantageScore 3.0 was within three Gini points (59.3) of VantageScore 2.0 (61.9), while VantageScore 1.0 was nearly nine points below (53.2).
- RISKY BUSINESS: Although the validation process has proven that all VantageScore credit scoring models have functioned as highly effective risk assessment tools throughout the last ten years, the risk levels associated with a specific score cut-off have varied over the years. According to shifts in the probability of default (PD) analysis, risk levels have finally returned to near pre-recession levels. This variation in risk levels makes it critical, however, for lenders to regularly and systematically review changes in the risk of score cut-offs and to update according to risk exposure.
VANTAGESCORE MODEL 3.0 CONTINUES TO BE BEST IN CLASS
Regardless of economic instability, VantageScore 3.0 in particular was shown to deliver superior and stable performance:
- PREDICTIVE POWER: During the performance period of 2013-2015, VantageScore 3.0 outperforms all CRC models by an average of 1.7%-3.4% in key industries.
- CONSISTENCY ACROSS THE BOARD: The accuracy of VantageScore 3.0 is also highly consistent across all three CRCs (Experian, Equifax and TransUnion) with a minimal variance of just .34 Gini points between each CRC.
- UNIVERSE EXPANSION: VantageScore 3.0 continues to score more of the “unscoreable population” than do other more conventional credit scoring models (approximately 30-35 million more consumers); 9.5 million of which are Hispanic- and African-American consumers.
The annual validation process begins by the random selection of credit files for 15 million consumers from CRC databases as a representation of the U.S. population. Each model is validated by comparing predictive performance, on both originations and existing-account management applications, against the CRCs’ in-house models for the bankcard, auto and mortgages industries.
For more information on the validation process and study results, please visit VantageScore.com/Validation2016.
About VantageScore Solutions
VantageScore Solutions, LLC (www.vantagescore.com) is the independently managed company that owns the intellectual property rights to the VantageScore credit scoring models, including the VantageScore 3.0 model, which scores 30-35 million consumers typically not scored by conventional models. VantageScore Solutions’ highly predictive models use an innovative, patented and patent-pending tri-bureau scoring methodology that provides lenders and consumers with more consistent credit scores across all three national credit reporting companies. Over six billion VantageScore credit scores were used in the previous 12 months, by over 2,000 lenders and other industry participants—including 7 of the 10 largest banks. The company is celebrating its tenth anniversary in 2016.
1Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Supervisory Guidance on Model Risk Management, April 4, 2011: http://www.occ.treas.gov/news-issuances/bulletins/2011/bulletin-2011-12a.pdf.
2The Gini coefficient of a credit score compares the distribution of defaulting consumers with the distribution of non-defaulting consumers across the credit score range. The coefficient has a value of 0 to 100. A value of 0 indicates that defaulting consumers are equally distributed across the entire credit score range. A coefficient value of 100 indicates that the credit score has successfully assigned all defaulting consumers to the lowest score possible. A Gini coefficient of 45 or greater is considered a good result by industry standards.